Will the black series of the king of cryptos end? – Three weeks after the collapse of the stablecoin UST which caused a general panic on cryptocurrencies, the Bitcoin (BTC) try so hard to straighten up. For fear of seeing it break new supports, attempts at technical rebounds have taken place. For the moment, they have all fallen into the water, until proven otherwise.
And for good reason, with a bear run that does not seem to be at its zenith, the latest technical analyzes offer us a pessimistic perception of BTC prices in the coming weeks. However, the sellers could slow down a little, and therefore cash in on some of their profits. As a result, they would pave the way for a technical rebound that is long overdue. All in a classic process of a bear run that could be prolonged.
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Towards a positive first week since March 28?
Le Bitcoin could put an end once and for all to its sad record of nine consecutive weeks of decline. But let’s not cry victory too quickly. Indeed, a break down of $24,449 would lead us to the tenth mark. The current candle pattern demonstrates that buyers are struggling to gain the upper hand over sellers.
Regarding the price position of BTC against the Ichimoku curves, it is almost the status quo compared to last week with two differences. The first is that prices and the Chikou Span are looking to painfully lean on the critical and symbolic support of $30,000. As for the second, the Kijun simply slips under the lower limit of the Kumo, the Senkou Span B (SSB).
Although the technical signals on the weekly chart are largely unfavorable, let’s not throw the baby out with the bathwater, at least temporarily. The significant downward gap between the Tenkan and Bitcoin prices leaves the door open for a technical rebound. The targets are the resistance of $35,000 and that of $38,000. She herself has been level with the Tenkan and close to the downline since her last ATH in November 2021.
Bitcoin – The end of the lethargy around $30,000?
Since May 12, Bitcoin prices appear to be in a deep sleep around the $30,000 support, in a certain way. Moreover, the Chikou Span imitates them on this same level in daily units. Based on this observation, we see a small lateral consolidation in a bear run. This would portend some profit taking from the sellers. They would thus offer a respite before returning to the charge at the next opportune moment. This scenario would be understandable after nine consecutive weeks of decline.
Despite a stealthy foray above the Tenkan to get away from the threat below $30,000, BTC continues to look gloomy. Especially since the significant thickness of the future Kumo could seriously limit the potential for the technical rebound so long awaited by cryptocurrency investors. Finally, to make matters worse, the upper limit of the cloud, which is now the SSB, is located at certain periods of the daily chart, very close to the descending line. This unfortunately constitutes a sizeable reinforcement against a favorable trend reversal.
Whether there is a technical rebound or not, the deal would remain unchanged regarding Bitcoin’s bear run. In view of the current dynamics both at the fundamental and technical level, it is logical to come to this. Like it or not, the worst is still ahead of us. Especially if the king of cryptos’ high correlation with equity indices suggests a re-examination of new lows for the year on the two risky asset classes.
We need to take into account the far positions of the BTC price and the Chikou Span below the Kumo in weekly units. Indeed, the fear of breaking the $30,000 support would be more than likely. In this sense, Bitcoin would return to the contact of $26,000. And why not consider the hypothesis of a return towards $20,000.
Conversely, if the technical bounce crosses the descending line for some reason, the definitive favorable trend reversal levels would still remain distant. Thus, it would be necessary to challenge the resistance of $46,000. This was the starting point for these nine weeks of decline in a row.
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